The effects of climate change are a central cause of hunger, malnutrition, and poverty.
Anticipatory Humanitarian Action
Act based on forecasts and predictions ahead of crises and disasters and their immediate impacts.
Each year, humanitarian needs are rising, with over 360 million people in need of assistance. Some of these people have been affected by protracted crisis, compounding and cascading risks with no substantial improvement soon in sight.
However, humanitarian action usually occurs once many people have already experienced devastating losses. Welthungerhilfe (WHH) champions a different approach – by taking proactive action – based on forecasts, predictions and intervening before crises and disasters cause hunger, property damage, and deaths.
Anticipatory Humanitarian Action – but what is the meaning?
Anticipatory Action is an innovative approach to humanitarian action. It means that we aim to support people by protecting their lives and livelihoods before an imminent disaster causes damage. Through detailed risk and vulnerability analyses, we can predict extreme weather events and their impacts with increasing accuracy and, based on these early warnings, implement action before a hazard unfolds its full impact. This enables people to make timely decisions on matters essential to their survival in the short time between the early warning and the onset of a disaster.
Video: Anticipatory Humanitarian Action explained
Anticipatory Humanitarian Action through scientific data
Based on comprehensive data analyses, WHH works with scientific partners to adapt and utilize forecasting models to predict disasters and their impacts on the local population. For example, analyzing past droughts and their impacts can help identify local risk factors and early warning indicators can be recorded and monitored (for droughts, for example, an indicator used is the soil moisture content for crops during the growing season). Historical drought analyses make it possible to determine a critical threshold that heralds a drought.
If this threshold is crossed, it triggers an early warning, which automatically puts predetermined contingency plans into motion and releases pre-agreed funds for anticipatory action interventions. These contingency plans, called Anticipatory Action Plans (AAPs) are established in advance of a crisis to outline the actions that can be taken to prevent or mitigate the humanitarian impact.
These AAPs also encompass strategic preparations, coordination mechanisms, and the allocation of roles and responsibilities necessary for executing anticipatory interventions. The necessary funding is pre-agreed with donors like the German Federal Foreign Office. This process ensures timely and efficient action even before a humanitarian disaster can develop.
Implementation of Anticipatory Action – step by step
- Coordination with national and local stakeholders (local meteorological agencies, disaster risk management authorities, community representatives, NGO and UN agencies, donors).
- Risk, exposure and vulnerability analysis: Analysis to understand which hazards are present, how they are forecasted and monitored, who and what is vulnerable to the impacts. This includes learning from previous disasters and recognizing warning signs early on.
- Impact-based forecasting and setting the trigger: Perform impact-based forecasting (an analysis of previous disasters and historical impact data) to set a threshold, called a trigger. For example: a certain level soil dryness in a region that has previously experienced severe droughts or when water levels in a river reach 'warning' levels on a community-managed gauge to take anticipatory action.
- Develop locally led AAPs and select relevant anticipatory actions. For example, cash transfers, distribution of flood kits, or sheltering in safe houses, for example, in the event of impending floods.
- Validation of AAPs and connection to fuel funding by all stakeholders involved to ensure ownership and secure necessary funding for it from donors.
- Monitoring of hazards and triggers: Regularly monitor hazard and trigger information, including climate, weather and hazard information at different timescales (e.g. seasonal climate outlooks, weekly weather forecasts and satellite-derived data, such as soil moisture measurements, used for predicting drought).
- Release of funding and roll-out of AAPs: If the threshold is crossed, roll-out the AAP, release pre-arranged funding and carry out anticipatory actions to protect people from immediate and long-term negative consequences of the impending hazard (for example, ensuring that children continue to have safe access to food, education, and health care).
- Monitoring & Evaluation: Evaluate the thresholds and trigger model, the consequences of extreme events that may have occurred and the results of anticipatory actions and incorporate them into the next assessment.
Anticipatory Humanitarian Action by WHH in north-eastern Madagascar
WHH is the first German non-governmental organization to pursue Anticipatory Humanitarian Action, having implemented AHA pilots since 2017. These anticipatory approaches to humanitarian action are fundamental to WHH’s global work. In conjunction with capacity-sharing measures alongside disaster risk reduction and emergency preparedness, this approach helps us, jointly with the communities at risk, to reduce the impact of crises and disasters. Thereby, we help mitigate losses, damages, and negative effects on affected populations.
"WAHAFA": Welthungerhilfe Anticipatory Humanitarian Action Facility
Through the Welthungerhilfe Anticipatory Humanitarian Action Facility (WAHAFA), WHH wants to join forces with other non-governmental organizations to advance this humanitarian paradigm shift towards increased anticipatory thinking and acting. The WAHAFA program aims to identify and analyze disaster risks, support the development of locally-led Anticipatory Action mechanisms, and secure funding to implement these mechanisms.
The WAHAFA will facilitate the active participation of German NGOs and their local humanitarian partners in Anticipatory Action by facilitating access to all needed key pillars. Participating organizations will be invited to join the capacity-sharing advances and receive budgetary and conceptual support in building scientific hazard forecasting models behind the trigger mechanisms and community-based and risk-informed Anticipatory Action Plans, which outline appropriate measures to take in case of an impending hazard. These are further linked to guaranteed funding of pre-agreed anticipatory actions in case the scientific forecasting system is triggered.
Insured against the risks of climate change
As part of the Anticipatory Action approach, the provision of funds to finance disaster response plans is supplemented by climate risk insurance. This involves predetermined insurance settlements being paid out when early warning indicators reach contractually stipulated critical thresholds.
However, due to the high insurance contribution payments required, insurance-based approaches are used only for relatively rare extreme droughts and emergencies. As a member of the Start Network and an active participant in its committees and expert panels, WHH supports the framework of the African Risk Capacity (ARC) Replica insurance approach.
Anticipatory Humanitarian Action: Efficient use of funds
Anticipatory Humanitarian Action can be one of the most efficient ways of providing assistance – because the fewer people who suffer the consequences of a disaster, the fewer people have to be helped out of acute need. This saves more lives and, at the same time, saves money, which in turn can be channeled into further humanitarian projects. If NGOs anticipate at least 25% of all disasters with Anticipatory Action in the future, this would mean an immense gain in efficiency.
However, only about 2% of the humanitarian funds made available by donor countries are flowing into the still reasonably new field of Anticipatory Action. The already scarce money for humanitarian action is urgently needed to support acute needs. By expanding Anticipatory Humanitarian Action, we want to help people protect themselves from disasters and thus help break the vicious circle of ever-increasing humanitarian needs.
It's not solely a financial matter
The benefits of Anticipatory Humanitarian Action extend beyond financial efficiency. By minimizing losses and damages, it helps communities avoid harmful coping strategies such as selling land and assets, withdrawing children from school, taking out unfavorable loans, or skipping meals. These actions can have long-term positive effects on nutrition, education, health, and overall resilience. Anticipatory measures, such as providing cash before a drought or taking preventive measures before floods, can protect livelihoods and save lives. With today’s ability to predict hazards accurately, taking anticipatory action is not only cost-effective but also a more dignified and humane way to support communities, ensuring their well-being and safeguarding their future.
Further reading:
At the Global Dialogue Platform (GDP) on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action in Berlin in October 2024, AA practitioners and academics came together to explore new approaches that better consider compounding and cascading hazards, with a focus on mitigating adverse impacts on acute food insecurity and malnutrition. This paper summarizes the discussions and practical steps identified from the session, alongside ongoing challenges in taking a more multi-hazard approach in AA.
The WAHAFA Guidelines on Navigating AA, Conflict and Displacement are designed to try and support WAHAFA partners applying for Build projects in navigating some of the complexities around Anticipatory Action (AA) for displacement and/or conflict.
