Emerging 2026 El Niño: Potential Implications for Agriculture, Food Security and Anticipatory Action

Key Messages

• This short analysis brings together the latest available information shared through the WHH/WAHAFA El Niño briefing, FEWS NET, UK Met Office, WMO Coordination Mechanism, GHACOF-73, GEOGLAM Crop Monitor, and related early warning products.
• It is intended to support discussion on possible agricultural implications of the emerging 2026 El Niño, with a focus on crops, livestock, market and food security where information is available, and anticipatory/early response options.
• The analysis should be read as an early warning synthesis, not as a deterministic impact forecast.
• The available sources cover different time horizons: WCM focuses mainly on June–August 2026, GHACOF-73 on June-September 2026 for the Greater Horn of Africa, Crop Monitor reflects crop conditions as of late April 2026, and the Met Office outlooks extend into November 2026 but with decreasing confidence at longer lead times.
• WCM also stresses that climate impacts will not depend only on El Niño intensity, but also on its timing, the Indian Ocean Dipole, regional/local factors and pre-existing vulnerability.