673 million people do not have enough to eat. Learn about the causes and consequences of hunger, where the situation is worst and what should be done to overcome hunger.
Escalation in the Middle East: Why Rising Energy Prices Threaten Global Food Security
How the War in Iran Could Trigger New Hunger Crises Worldwide
Dr. Rafaël Schneider Coordinator Food Security Standard - Deputy Director Policy & External Relations
While in countries in the Global North the debate largely focuses on rising energy prices for heating, transportation, and production, the war in the Middle East is triggering far more severe consequences worldwide. For many countries—particularly in Africa—a dangerous combination of energy price shocks, supply chain disruptions, and rising food costs is now emerging. This dynamic could further intensify existing hunger crises.
Several factors are simultaneously driving this development. Particularly critical is the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply and nearly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade normally pass. Shipping traffic there has nearly come to a standstill, hundreds of tankers are stranded, and transportation costs have already begun to rise.
At the same time, key energy infrastructure has been damaged, with refineries and export terminals in the region affected. Even if the fighting were to end soon, repairs could take weeks or even months.
Shockwaves for African Economies
The economic consequences are already clearly visible across Africa—though unevenly distributed.
Some oil-producing countries such as Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, and Libya are benefiting in the short term from higher revenues due to unexpectedly high oil prices of more than $100 per barrel. For countries like Nigeria, whose national budgets were originally calculated with significantly lower prices, this initially means additional income.
For the majority of African countries, however, the price shock represents a major burden. Nations such as South Africa, Kenya, and Ghana depend heavily on imported fuels. Rising energy prices put pressure on government budgets, drive inflation, and force central banks to raise interest rates. Ultimately, the cost of living increases, putting the livelihoods of poor households at risk.
There is also a structural problem: some oil-producing countries import most of their refined fuels. While government revenues increase because of higher oil prices, consumers and agricultural producers simultaneously have to bear rising gasoline and transport costs.
When Energy Crises Become Food Crises
The impacts on agricultural and food systems are particularly alarming. The Persian Gulf is a key source of fertilizers on the global market. Due to the disruption of major trade routes, supplies have been severely restricted. Deliveries are slowing and prices are rising. For many African countries, this could seriously jeopardize the upcoming 2026/27 planting season—raising the risk of lower harvests.
International shipping is also under growing pressure. Major shipping companies are increasingly bypassing the Red Sea and the Gulf region, extending delivery times by weeks and adding emergency surcharges. These additional costs are passed along the supply chain—and ultimately show up as higher prices for food, fertilizer, and even medicines for consumers.
Countries with already fragile economies or high debt levels are particularly at risk, including Sudan, The Gambia, the Central African Republic, and Zimbabwe. The Sahel countries—such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—are also under particular pressure. Rising fuel costs make the already difficult transport of food even more expensive and could further intensify existing humanitarian crises.
What The International Community Can Do Now
How strongly and how long these developments will affect global markets depends largely on the duration of the conflict. A quick end to the war could significantly ease some of the effects described above. Yet even short-term price shocks and supply chain disruptions can trigger long-lasting crises in fragile states. For that reason, the international community, including the German government, should act now.
In the short term, targeted efforts are needed to prevent hunger crises—for example through additional funding for humanitarian assistance and support for programs that stabilize agricultural systems.
In the long term, the international community must significantly expand its commitment to global food security. This includes investing in resilient food systems and more sustainable agricultural production, as well as strengthening international cooperation to achieve the second UN Sustainable Development Goal: Zero Hunger by 2030.
Current developments once again demonstrate that energy security and food security are closely interconnected on a global scale. Investing in prevention and resilience today helps prevent humanitarian crises tomorrow—and contributes to overcoming hunger worldwide.
