War in Iran: Even with immediate peace and reopened sea routes, hunger and poverty feared to escalate
The two-week ceasefire has allowed the world to breathe a cautious sigh of relief. Despite its fragility, it raises hopes of easing pressure on global supply chains. Nevertheless, the danger is far from over: the already strained food security situation risks deteriorating further, potentially triggering local hunger crises. The consequences are already severe. All blockades contributing to poverty and hunger worldwide must be lifted immediately, and a diplomatic resolution to the conflict must be reached as quickly as possible to prevent an even worse outcome.
What are the global impacts of the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz?
The consequences of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran threaten livelihoods worldwide. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February has triggered a devastating chain reaction. What began as an energy and fertilizer crisis will soon lead to crop failures and food inflation. The United Nations Development Programme warns that 30 million more people will be pushed into poverty. When families already living in poverty have to spend more than half their income on food, every price spike immediately leads to hunger. Many people can now only afford to consume smaller quantities and fewer fruits and vegetables. If food prices rise by ten percent, this can increase the number of acutely malnourished children (wasting) by more than four percent.
Many countries depend on the Gulf region in two distinct ways:
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Direct imports: They rely on fossil fuels for transport, agricultural machinery, electricity generation, and domestic fertilizer production.
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Fertilizers: Many countries depend on fertilizer imports, as Gulf states use their vast natural gas reserves for the energy-intensive production. Prices have already risen sharply.
The blockade is hitting particularly hard in regions where agricultural productivity is already low and which are already at their limits due to climate shocks like droughts or floods, such as in the so-called Horn of Africa.
The damage already done is immense: while people in Germany debate fuel prices, in Madagascar livelihoods are already at stake, with an energy emergency declared. In Sudan, conventional truck transport is being replaced by small motorcycles and donkey carts because fuel prices have risen by up to 78 percent. Humanitarian aid deliveries are also being delayed. In India, low-income populations report losing access to cooking gas and are switching back to firewood.
What are the long-term effects of the Iran war on agriculture and food security?
It will likely take years for the Gulf region’s production capacity to recover. Alternatives cannot be found overnight, and complex supply chains usually take months to stabilize. A temporary ceasefire does not yet provide the certainty needed to deliver meaningful relief.
While energy and fertilizer prices surged at the start of the blockade, they are now declining only slowly. Fears of shortages, speculation, and price gouging are keeping prices high, even as shipping resumes. Agricultural growing cycles, however, do not wait.
Risks for agriculture and food supply
- In some regions, the optimal window for applying fertilizer may already have passed by the time it becomes available and affordable again.
- If fertilization happens too late or in insufficient quantities, harvests will be poor in both quality and quantity.
- Even when available, the sharp price increases present an insurmountable barrier for many smallholder farmers.
The situation is critical in Ethiopia, for example: the key Meher season (starting June/July) is approaching. Even if shipments arrive via Djibouti, local fuel shortages are blocking further transport. In Kenya, planting continues until the end of May. Many farmers are planting without fertilizer—a risky emergency strategy. The window is closing quickly: when maize reaches knee height about four to six weeks after planting, it requires large amounts of nitrogen. If additional fertilization does not occur by shoulder height after about eight to ten weeks, yield losses become irreversible.
What are governments doing to address the consequences of the Iran war?
Some countries are attempting to mitigate these delays through government support. In Kenya, maize farmers continue to have access to phosphate-rich fertilizers (DAP) and organo-mineral products through subsidized supplies. In India, retail fertilizer prices have remained stable thanks to government subsidies, despite reduced domestic production.
Sufficient fertilizer remains available for the smaller summer harvest; however, farmers have stockpiled supplies out of concern over future price increases. For the critical Kharif season (beginning in June/July), the fertilization window is still open. However, the key question remains how long governments can sustain this fiscal burden. Many countries are being forced to take on new debt to finance these subsidies—funds that will then be unavailable for education, healthcare, or climate action in the future.
What does Welthungerhilfe (WHH) recommend in response to the looming crisis caused by the Iran war?
It is not too late to prevent worse outcomes.
- There is an urgent need for intensified diplomatic efforts to end the war and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—initially, at least, for essential inputs.
- Low-income, import-dependent countries should temporarily subsidize food, fertilizers and energy for affected populations, or implement targeted cash transfers. Experience from previous crises shows that the latter is highly effective. Multilateral organizations should provide financial support where necessary (see below).
- Emergency relief funds could also help cover the increased costs of humanitarian operations.
- A global coordination mechanism could ensure that existing fertilizer stocks reach those most in need, rather than those with the highest purchasing power.
A positive example can also be found in WHH's work: many smallholder farmers in Nepal, Bangladesh and India produce their own natural fertilizers. Because they are not dependent on costly imports, they are proving significantly more resilient in the crisis.
This points the way forward. The current crisis must serve as a catalyst to make food systems more resilient and sustainable. Globalization must be shaped to strengthen diversity and resilience rather than create one-sided dependencies. This includes promoting regenerative agriculture and renewable energy, expanding regional fertilizer production capacities, and diversifying trade relationships.
What must the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings deliver now?
Time is a critical factor in the current crisis, making these meetings especially timely. Affected countries urgently require financial support through cash transfers and subsidies for fertilizers and food in order to stabilize prices, save the planting season, and prevent the worst impacts on populations. Without multilateral assistance, many countries face severe setbacks.
Debt relief measures must also be placed on the agenda. A dedicated financial facility, along with debt relief, restructuring, and improved credit terms, could be linked to commitments for investment in agriculture, healthcare, and climate adaptation, thereby strengthening resilience against future crises.
International financial institutions must continue to use their influence to clearly quantify the economic cost of the war in order to increase pressure on the parties involved to return to the negotiating table.
