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16.11.2015 | Blog

Climate change as a poverty trap

What do climate changes mean for people, who are already starving or undernourished?

A woman sits in the desert.
"Before this terrible drought I had 60 goats, 14 camels, 30 cows, enough to feed everyone in my household. Now only 10 goats are left." - Zahara Ali Mohammed © Roland Brockmann
Michael Kühn Team Policy and External Relations

Climate change is advancing inexorably, the effects are not to be ignored. Is the number of starving people in the world also rising as a result? And how does climate change affect the nutritional situation and security for people in developing countries?

The consequences of climate change can already be felt everywhere, above all in developing countries. If precipitation volumes and periods change, if temperature and CO2 concentrations in the air, soil and water change, this has a direct effect on agricultural productivity and on the quality of the products. In addition, as a result of climate change there is an increase in the number and strength of extreme weather events such as storms and floods. They have fatal impacts on food production. A large part of the global population fears for its livelihood - agriculture. 80 per cent of people in developing countries depend on it. 

A study of the effects of climate change on sustainable food and nutrition security with case studies in Kenya, Pakistan and Peru.

Does climate change lead to hunger? 

In numerous regions, the risk of crop failures due to storms, hurricanes, typhoons, floods or drought periods is increasing as a consequence of climate change. And: Sea water leaves flooded fields infertile and salinates freshwater sources.

Disasters – whether climate-induced or other natural disasters – destroy important infrastructure: Without irrigation plants, roads and markets, food can no longer be cultivated, transported or traded.

Climate change consequences

After people have survived the disasters, they must face the next problem – hunger. Due to weather extremes, food often becomes more expensive. Droughts or floods frequently lead to crop failures, which in turn affect prices because, if own fields have been destroyed and no food is able to be cultivated locally, it must be imported in greater quantities. However, these foodstuffs are usually too expensive and thus barely affordable for the people. After the destruction of home and garden, the scant financial resources become even more scarce. 

This report explores how the goal of ending poverty and reducing the impact of climate change can be more easily achieved if considered together.

read more

The food situation is becoming increasingly difficult

Even today, around one in every eleven people suffers from hunger. Of these 795 million, 98% live in developing countries. In addition, approximately two billion people suffer from micronutrient deficiency (known as "hidden hunger"). The effects of climate change on food and nutrition security will be felt particularly in the countries which are already in a critical situation. 

Climate change makes agricultural production more difficult: 

As a result of climate change, the availability of agricultural land area reduces, its yields decrease. The situation is intensified by the fact that the affected people often have neither expert knowledge nor capital - both would help them to adapt to climate changes. 

Climate change hits Kenya hard

In Kenya, the nutrition of 44 million people is already insecure. More than two million Kenyans are permanently dependent on food aid. Climate change hits Kenya hard: According to prognoses, temperatures in the country will rise on average by a further 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. In 85 years, the temperatures could even rise to a plus of 3.4 degrees Celsius if we do not act now and reduce the global output of emissions.

Kenya: food production decreases

In Kenya, as a consequence of climate change, heatwaves and heavy rain will become more powerful and occur more frequently. The heat and water stress for cultivated plants will increase. Harvests will be lower in both quantity and quality. Pests and fungal infestations are also increasing due to the temperature rise; they damage the crops and affect the storage of supplies. In the future, more food imports will become necessary. That affects small farmer families in Kenya particularly hard: Sinking crop yields lead to lower income and therefore less purchasing power.

Global warming has fatal consequences for Pakistan

In Pakistan, there is already a serious nutritional situation. The population is very susceptible to climate changes and natural disasters. Floods are already occurring regularly. They contaminate the groundwater and destroy important infrastructure.

Pakistan: wheat and rice yields will decrease

Prognoses for Pakistan assume that the average temperature will rise around 1.4 to 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2050. Farmers will then have to accept huge losses in wheat and rice production. Specifically, reductions of 10 to 30 per cent can be reckoned with. In 86 years, the temperature rise could even be as great as 6 degrees Celsius. Then it would be impossible to farm in Pakistan. There is no off-switch for climate change - we have to act now!

Peru in 2050: 5 million more Peruvians will suffer from poverty and hunger

In Peru, it is not only El Niño that threatens. Due to climate change, the country will be afflicted more regularly and more intensely by heavy rains and storms. They destroy infrastructure and endanger the cultivation of export goods, such as cocoa and coffee, the most important income sources for many small farmer families. Experts forecast that if climate protection efforts do not increase and global emissions are not drastically reduced, then in 2050 five million more Peruvians will suffer from hunger and poverty.

Peru is one of the 10 countries in the world most threatened by climate change

In Peru at the moment, 38 per cent of the population suffer from hidden hunger. Peru is one of the ten countries in the world most threatened by climate change. The main problem is the melting of the Andes glaciers and the temperature rise. Prognoses work on the basis of 1.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius. As a result, the vegetation and cultivation zones and water will become scarce in many regions.

The quality of agricultural products will change

The consequences of climate change also affect the quality of food: Less can be cultivated on exhausted or desiccated soils. The supply of vitamin-rich fruit and vegetables reduces. The products have a lower nutritional value. A balanced diet becomes barely possible. Furthermore, less drinking water will be available and it will be of a worse quality. This makes the hygienic processing and preparation of food more difficult.

Climate change as poverty trap: Setbacks in the fight against hunger

According to scientists, in 2050 between 2 and 5 billion people will not be able to be adequately nourished as a result of climate change – many more than today (source: World Bank study). We must not let climate change destroy the successes of the fight against hunger and poverty.

In order to save nature from collapse and to reduce the number of people suffering hunger and poverty, there is an urgent need for action. On the one side, climate change must be stopped. For this, the reduction of greenhouse gases is necessary. Production and consumer patterns also need to change, especially in the global North.

In order to combat hunger and poverty, in the South in particular the sustainable development of food must be expedited, which also takes into account local and regional circumstances. In addition, we must reduce the competition between food production and use of biomass for other purposes than food. The reduction of post-harvest losses, fairer international trade regimes and the transparency of food prices on the global market are further challenges standing before us.

A climate agreement in Paris can certainly not do justice to all aspects, but it must provide the direction so that, in future, hunger and poverty are a thing of the past.

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