Conflicts Drive Food Insecurity in Africa

Acute food insecurity is when a person’s inability to consume adequate food puts their life or livelihood in immediate danger. The number of Africans suffering from acute food insecurity in 2025 is estimated at 167 million – a tragic record high.

Conflicts on the continent remain the main drivers of food insecurity. 130 million, or roughly 78 per cent of those facing acute food insecurity, live in African countries affected by conflict. There were also famines on the continent; around 700,000 people were affected – all of them in conflict regions of Sudan, South Sudan or Mali.

The five countries with the highest numbers of people facing acute food insecurity were also countries affected by conflict, namely Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Ethiopia and South Sudan. Together, they account for almost two-thirds of the people suffering from food insecurity in Africa.

Prolonged conflict has a negative impact on a country’s food production and economic performance. It also exacerbates food insecurity in the long term. In Ethiopia, for example, there was a sharp rise in the number of people facing food insecurity during the war in Tigray in 2020–22, from 8.6 million to 23.6 million. Although the figure has since fallen, it remains much higher than it was before 2020.

Four of the five countries with the highest numbers of acutely food-insecure people are neighbors: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan. These regional links highlight the spillover effect of political instability and conflict.

In 2025, the largest number of people facing food insecurity lived in East Africa (35% or 57.9 million); followed by West Africa (28% or 47.4 million), Central Africa (23% or 38.2 million) and Southern Africa (14% or 23.5 million). As mentioned above, famines had also spread to three countries since 2024: Sudan, South Sudan and Mali. In Sudan, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) specifically targeted food production infrastructure; whilst both warring parties, namely the RSF and the Sudanese army, attacked civilian markets and prevented humanitarian aid from reaching the suffering population.

The source of all these findings is the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, an academic institution within the US Department of Defense. It does, however, use figures from reputable international organizations.

Conflict in dependent countries increases after donor reductions

Of great interest in the context of conflicts and food security is a study published in February 2026 by three Australian economists on the short-term consequences of the decline in foreign aid on conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa. The Center for Global Development has also examined this study in detail and endorsed its findings.

The study was based on the abrupt termination of USAID’s foreign aid programs in February 2025. In sub-Saharan Africa, disbursements fell by approximately 90% in the following month compared to the same month a year earlier.

In countries more dependent on foreign aid, armed conflicts between organized actors subsequently increased by around 15% relative to less aid-dependent countries, with this effect being strongest in the first three months following the suspension of aid. Violence against civilians rose by 10%; it was more often perpetrated by militias than by state forces or rebel groups.

According to the Australian researchers, the consequences are less severe in countries with greater state capacity, better public administration and territorial control. They are significantly higher in countries with political corruption. Abrupt cuts in foreign aid influence conflicts not only by reducing financial resources, but also by undermining expectations and commitments that previously constrained violent behavior.