The Changing Global Landscape of Fertilizer Exports

For their development and growth, plants require – in addition to water – nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, as well as trace elements like copper and zinc. Fertilizers are therefore indispensable for agricultural production and play a crucial role in global food security.

Fertilizers are generally classified into organic and synthetic types. The latter are also referred to as mineral fertilizers.

According to the German Federal Environment Agency, the production, storage, and application of mineral fertilizers can have serious environmental impacts. The production of synthetic fertilizers requires a high energy input, which not only consumes resources but also leads to greenhouse gas emissions – especially when nitrogen fertilizers are used. Nitrogen and phosphorus can have a negative impact on soil fertility and water quality, while ammonia emissions from the use of nitrogen fertilizers can impair air quality. Some fertilizers contain heavy metals that plants do not need, which are absorbed by plants and animals and thus enter the food chain.

The importance of mineral fertilizers in the global agricultural system has increased dramatically over the past 60 years. Their consumption has increased more than sixfold, rising from 31 megatons in 1961 to 195 megatons in 2021.

Of these 195 megatons, 60% are nitrogen-based fertilizers, while phosphorus- and potassium-based fertilizers each account for one-fifth of fertilizer consumption.

At the same time, fertilizer markets are closely linked to a shifting geopolitical landscape and the disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine and, currently, by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. However, little research has been conducted on the interrelationships between the various influences and variables in the global fertilizer supply chain. This is precisely the aim of a study published last year, from which the data for the chart was drawn.

The study describes the reshaping of the fertilizer landscape, driven by interlocking forces. These include the growing pursuit of a secure fertilizer supply, efforts to decarbonize production using local renewable energy sources, attempts at industrial modernization – and, of course, geopolitical objectives.

The chart illustrates just how dramatically the fertilizer market has changed since 2000. While Russia was able to further expand its position as the largest fertilizer exporter and China’s exports grew significantly, most other countries lost market share. One exception is Morocco, which has managed to improve its position; the country holds by far the largest known reserves phosphate ores (some of which are located in the occupied Western Sahara). Initial projections for 2025 indicate that Russia will remain the largest exporter, followed by China, Morocco, Canada, and Saudi Arabia. The largest importers in 2022 were Brazil, India, and the United States.

Due to the war in Ukraine and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer prices have risen sharply; an increase of more than 30% over the previous year is expected in 2026, with urea – an important nitrogen fertilizer – likely to see an even greater increase. The cultivation of crops such as rice, corn, and wheat is particularly urea-intensive compared to oilseeds or legumes. The rice harvest is therefore most at risk among these major crops. Parts of Asia, Brazil, and Australia are particularly dependent on imports of fertilizer from the Persian Gulf.

However, food security is most at risk in low-income countries, as farmers there less able to continue financing the use of fertilizer. In Africa and Latin America in particular, they are highly dependent on fertilizer imports, which is currently causing serious supply problems. In many low-income countries, this dependence on imports leads to low fertilizer usage per hectare of cultivated land. Africa, for example, accounts for 17% of the world’s arable land, yet African farmers account for only 4% of fertilizer use. Yields are correspondingly low. Africa consumes the smallest volume of synthetic fertilizers but exports significant quantities. 85% of fertilizer exports from major African producers such as Morocco, Nigeria, and Egypt are destined for other parts of the world, primarily South America and Europe.

The fertilizer crisis is further exacerbated by the fact that China, the world’s second-largest exporter, has drastically restricted fertilizer exports to secure the national supply for spring planting. This particularly affects India, the world’s largest importer of urea.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz once again highlights Sub-Saharan Africa’s extreme dependence on fertilizer imports, as it sources up to 90% of its needs from abroad. Low production and high domestic transportation costs make fertilizer there among the most expensive in the world.

According to Olivier De Schutter, the UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, Malawi sourced 52% of its fertilizer from the Persian Gulf region, both Tanzania and Pakistan 31% of their requirements, Uganda 27%, and India 25%. “It is already clear that food production will decline in a number of countries in 2027 because planting between now and the fall will be associated with higher fertilizer prices, and many farmers will be forced to give it up,” De Schutter told the German daily newspaper “Süddeutsche Zeitung”.

Qu Dongyu, Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), has already warned of a very serious food crisis in the coming years, calling the developments “not just a geopolitical crisis, but a systemic shock to the global agriculture and food sector.”